Fire Season Prospects Split East of the Rockies
Proactive management. Science-based decision-making. Effective information transfer. Decision support. These phrases are prevalent in many directives from federal land management agencies tasked with the responsibility for containing fire suppression costs and managing the treatment of forests and rangelands in the United States. But what do these phrases really mean when it comes to fire business?
Between Jan. 19-21 the second annual National Seasonal Assessment Workshop for the Eastern & Southern States was held at the National Conservation Training Center in Shepherdstown, W.Va., to improve information available to fire management for proactive strategies, including resource allocation.
The workshop brought together a diverse group of participants from state and federal fire management agencies, as well as climate and weather experts from regional, national, and university research and operational forecast centers. Participants included fire behavior analysts, fire meteorologists, intelligence coordinators, fuels specialists, climate forecasters and research scientists. Together these professionals used state-of-the-art climate forecasts, fuels assessments, Fire Family Plus projections and other information to prepare pre-season outlooks for the late winter through early summer fire seasons east of the Rockies.
The outlook for the National Predictive Services Group's eastern geographic area calls for below-normal fire potential across the mid-Atlantic states, stretching from western Ohio up to the southern tier of New York. Much of the area, in the throes of drought as recently as two years ago, received abundant precipitation over the last 12 months, including a series of fall and early winter storms that dumped heavy moisture over the region during the last quarter of 2004.
The rest of the eastern area has been moist over the past several months, although workshop participants were wary of relatively low snow cover as of late January across the northern tier of the eastern area. How long that snow lasts is a key factor in determining the beginning of the eastern fire season.
The eastern area's working group members also were concerned about the lingering effects of blowdown, as well as insect- and ice-damaged downed fuels from 2004 and previous years. In Minnesota, for example, 43,000 acres in the Bemidji/Park Rapids area suffered significant jack pine budworm mortality. Until these logs are removed or rot, they add to fire potential — if the area dries out for a week or more. Official NOAA-Climate Prediction Center forecasts do not indicate any significant chance for increased dryness in the East during the first half of 2005.
Nevertheless, eastern areas workshop participants cautioned that it would be a mistake to ignore the potential for major fires during the spring. The abundance of fine dead fuels during the spring can respond rapidly to short-term weather that can't be predicted three months in advance.
The NPSG's southern area working group members were concerned about above-normal fire potential in the Florida peninsula. The peninsula has high fuel loading as a result of five hurricanes that pounded Florida and the Gulf Coast during 2004. Roughly 20 million acres were significantly affected in Florida and Alabama. These unusually high fuel loads increase the chances of igniting ground fires in peat or other highly organic soils, if extended drying occurs. The southern part of the peninsula missed most of the tropical storm activity that caused the blowdown. Spotting from wildfires or prescribed burns in blowdown areas was also a concern of the working group.
On the climate front, as of late January when the outlook was produced, the Keetch-Byram Drought Index — a measure of the effects of temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity on duff and heavy fuels — was registering higher than average values in southern Florida and parts of the Carolinas. Official climate forecasts for Florida do not indicate the above-average precipitation that usually accompanies El Niño, but the forecasts show increased chances of above-average temperatures, which can dry out the peninsula during the spring.
Working group members predicted normal fire potential for other parts of the southern area. The other southern states received average to above-average rainfall from fall tropical storms and slow-moving low-pressure systems. While long-term climate conditions were not a concern for the other southern area states, blowdown has increased fuel loads. Blown down trees, killed by southern pine beetles, in an area stretching from Mississippi northward to the Virginia Appalachians can increase fire potential in the face of seven- to 30-day dry spells. Similarly, North Carolina trees killed by 1998 and 2003 hurricanes also can increase fire potential, given sustained dryness.
Southern area workshop participants noted the need for heavier tractors and bulldozers in Florida, to remove “jack-strawed” blowdown. They also expressed concern about fire starts from debris burning in storm-damaged areas. Historically, the largest cause of Florida fire starts in January and February is debris burning.
The fire potential outlooks mentioned above were generated as part of a forward-thinking multi-year partnership between the NPSG, university researchers and climate forecasters. The seasonal assessment workshops developed by these partners foster interactions between participants, such as fuels specialists and climate modelers, who work in what might seem to be alternate universes. The dialogue between workshop participants, as well as their desire to put forth the best possible product — given the limitations of science and technology — helps to bridge the worlds of fire managers and researchers.
The value of the seasonal assessment process is that the fuels-and-climate outlooks create a baseline for operational decision-making in the face of uncertainty. Forecasts of persistent climate patterns, such as El Niño, combined with the insights of field-savvy fire professionals allow regional managers to make informed decisions about proactive management strategies, such as prepositioning, resource allocation, prescribed burning and other treatments, and public education efforts.
In addition to producing outlooks for fire management, workshop participants gain perspective on each others' operations, which allows for mutual understanding and improved cooperation. Seasonal assessment organizers have observed that as participants return for each year's workshop, they get to know each other, which builds trust, and increases the potential for innovations. For example, participants in the 2004 Eastern & Southern States workshop came to the 2005 meeting armed with experimental snow data and KBDI forecast products. The enthusiastic dialogues among 2005 participants may spark even better information transfer and improved decision support for fire managers at the 2006 workshop.
For more information about the National Seasonal Assessment Workshops, visit the following Web site: www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/conferences/NSAW/index.html.
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