Australian Policy in Review
The recent Australian bushfires and tragic civilian deaths in Victoria have prompted inevitable reviews of that country's bushfire policy for homeowners. Following the extraordinary fire runs of Feb. 7, Victorian Premier John Brumby said that the long-standing approach of "Prepare, stay and defend, or go early," had not saved lives and that an in-depth examination of all of the issues associated with the recent fires was needed.
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I'm sure Premier Brumby's statement that the policy had not saved lives will be closely examined. But did the policy place lives in jeopardy?
Tragedy always provides us with teachable moments. The Australasian Fire & Emergency Service Authorities and the Bushfire Cooperative Research Center have begun examining a wide range of research and policy issues following the fires. These studies should provide a foundation for updating approaches to fire prevention, safety education and suppression strategy worldwide. I hope that the lessons learned receive sustained attention in all nations faced with wildland fire. Teachable moments often aren't seized by those who may benefit the most, especially in places where the next fire tragedies will occur. Lessons learned can fade rapidly, even where the events were most strongly felt.
Existing policy was not taught by the Australian fire community thoughtlessly. Good logic derived from hard-earned experience supports its principal components. Demographic and climate changes, increased wildland firefighting costs, and the reality that most civilian deaths occur during late evacuation contextualize the lessons Australia will share with the rest of the world. Fire organizations should apply the lessons learned; they should not disregard the existing Australian strategy arbitrarily.
I have long endorsed the same strategy in the United States, where it is commonly called "Shelter in Place." This allows able residents to defend their prepared homes. I tend to disagree with compulsory fire evacuations that, contrary to many people's beliefs, aren't always mandatory and can vary with local regulation. Staying may be feasible for an able homeowner on fire days with low to moderate fire behavior; it is not feasible when extreme fire behavior is forecast.
Nature's fury can overwhelm even the best-engineered defensive efforts. Individual homeowner choices should be evaluated with knowledge of event-specific risk. Information needs to be communicated to the public clearly and early, as with other weather-related phenomena. Emergency management officials need to convey an easily understandable fire danger message to the public, especially when it involves high risk from extreme fire behavior. When necessary, officials should strongly compel residents to leave as early as possible.
"Prepare" is the most important part of any strategy, particularly if a life depends on it. If a structure is not prepared in advance, residents shouldn't consider the stay-and-defend phase. "Go early" becomes the only prepared option. Even if a building is properly prepared, not all civilians should consider staying. They need to be prepared in advance and ready to go at public warnings. A person not prepared to face a fire front with multistory flame lengths needs to realize their limitations. Watching a large fire front bear down on you can be a terrifying experience that overwhelms any attachment to a physical structure.
Leaving late is a disaster waiting to happen. You can't outrun or outdrive extreme fire behavior.
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