SPOT-ON

By Mike Lee

Three firefighters stood in a fire camp on the Bitterroot National Forest, 20 miles southwest of Missoula, Mont. It was August 2003, and sweating firefighters were digging trenches and running pumps on the Coonie Fire, several miles from camp. But the IMET, or incident meteorologist, in camp wasn't watching the fire. He stood transfixed by a huge dark cloud rapidly approaching the camp — and the fire.

IMET Jeff Tonkin had been watching this “cell” build on his computer in a nearby tent, trying to decide if the situation warranted a call to the fire line. Suddenly, 40mph wind gusts began tearing at the tents, scattering garbage and turning over outhouses, generally reeking havoc on the camp. Tonkin knew only minutes remained until these same winds would burst on the fire like a freight train, putting firefighters on the nearby ridge in mortal danger. He sprinted for the radio trailer and sounded the alarm. Firefighters took refuge in the nick of time as flames raged ahead of the sudden wind gusts. It was a close call, but all were safe.

Usually an IMET can give the fire line much earlier warning on dangerous developments like these. Using state-of-the-art computer models and satellite programs, incident meteorologists can obtain fairly accurate forecasts in the morning before firefighters leave camp. Weather balloons and local observations on the fire site send feedback to the nearest National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service office, where meteorologists can make “spot weather forecasts.” In other words, forecasters view oncoming weather and can soon determine fairly accurately when rain squalls or windstorms will hit a given fire.

For example, in the tragic Storm King Mountain Fire, the IMET predicted that a dangerous cold front would pass over the area around 10 a.m. At 10:03 a.m., the flags on the ranger's pole abruptly changed directions, and the winds near Vail, Colo., whipped into a fury. Unfortunately, the good work done by the IMET was to no avail because communications had broken down. Firefighters working in dangerous chimneys, or steep almost vertical canyons, were never advised of the cold front's passage. The result was several tragic deaths.

While an IMET is on a fire, he or she becomes the lead weather authority for that small zone. For example, an IMET can change forecasts and issue severe weather warnings when necessary. This responsibility requires classes in fire weather, fire behavior and incident command classes in addition to degree in normal weather forecasting.

The IMET's autonomy is important. When Tonkin was on an active fire along the Sierra Nevadas, the local weather office had issued a Red Flag Warning for high winds in the area. Tonkin examined local topography and decided that the winds would not be blowing over his fire. Weather models showed that nearby peaks would provide shelter from the winds. He went to the morning briefing and expressed his confidence that firefighters would be safe from high winds that day, and he was right.

When an IMET reaches an incident, several things are expected as soon as the tent is pitched and incident briefing is received. Tasks include:

1. Morning weather briefings of incident leadership, generally conducted outside in predawn darkness.

2. Evening briefings on weather conditions and forecasts for planning and strategizing.

3. Monitoring weather data on computer to catch violent weather developing during the day.

4. Issuing spot weather forecasts for the immediate area.

5. Issuing flying-weather forecasts to aviators on the fire.

Once these things are organized, the routine includes assembling weather observations from crews and remote automated weather stations. During slower moments an IMET will research climatological norms for the area to help make longer-term predictions. Through satellite and Doppler radar data, the IMET can observe unpredicted violent weather developing over the fire.

To relay this information to personnel working on the line, the IMET briefs the leadership in the early morning and attends command and general staff meetings each day for the same purpose. Weather forecasts are included in the Incident Action Plan, which goes out to each and every person on the line. Another important function is to brief pilots and aircraft crewmembers on current weather predictions so they can make critical decisions on when and where to fly.

One interesting routine is launching helium-filled weather balloons to determine actual wind speeds and directions from ground level to several thousand feet. Tonkin says that while on a fire near Winthrop, Wash., his forecast called for minimal winds on the ridge tops. Firefighters were confident that they could perform an direct attack on the front of the fire.

After launching a balloon, however, he immediately discovered high winds just above the fire that were likely to descend to the ridge tops. He sprinted to the radio room to get word to the several hundred firefighters who were up there working. Thanks to his alertness, all personnel were holding in safe zones when the winds dropped and the fires raced on a destructive rampage.

When Incident Commander Tom Kurth took over the Fox Creek Fire on Tustumena Lake within the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska, the fire was active and doubling in size every few hours. Cabins in the nearby Caribou Hills and even the nearby communities of Kasilof and Ninilchik might be in danger.

Kurth knew that having a meteorologist on his immediate staff was essential for strategic planning and the safety of the firefighters under his command: “Our most critical operational concerns are based on weather,” he says.

He put a call into the Alaska State Forestry Logistics Center in Fairbanks, which moved the call to the Interagency Coordination Center on Ft. Wainright. The lead fire-weather person in Boise, Idaho, then began to look for a qualified person to take a temporary assignmenton the fire No one was available in Anchorage or Seattle, so he turned to the best-qualified person elsewhere in the National Weather Service.

That person was Tonkin, who left his home and office in Eureka, Calif., to come to the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge. Tonkin earned a degree in meteorology from San Jose State University before working for the National Weather Service. Throughout his career, he had trained rigorously for work on fires and spent six years in Anchorage. These qualifications made him an excellent choice for IMET on an Alaskan fire.

“I always enjoy being dispatched to Alaskan wildfires because weather forecasting here is so challenging,” Tonkin says. “The reward of a good forecast and being able to assist the team in its mission, is incredibly satisfying.”

The incident meteorologist certainly earns the place of a national resource for all-risk situations. People in this position are often the unsung heroes at hurricanes, floods, fires and a variety of incidents.

“Weather is the foundation of the fire triangle — weather, fire and fuel,” says Kurth. “You can have fuel and steep topography, but without the right weather, you may have no fire behavior.”

Mike Lee is the information officer for the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.