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Black Saturday


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Massive fires in Victoria, Australia, this year offer dramatic lessons in the wake of disaster.

The large bushland areas of Victoria that had been awash with flames years earlier on Ash Wednesday and Black Friday were burning again, but now more people had moved into this environment on the urban fringe from nearby Melbourne. Homes in the path of the fire vanished, and then whole streets filled with homes and their owners quickly began to disappear, until finally even a whole small town was consumed. It has been reported that the fatalities happened while people tried to defend their homes, some with garden hoses. Others simply huddled together in their bedrooms as black smoke filled their houses until they were finally asphyxiated. Many more perished in their cars while attempting to flee, only to have their escapes stopped by falling trees or crashes into unseen objects in the heavy smoke and chaos.

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The Australian media soon were referring to this day as Black Saturday. In reality, most of the destruction occurred over Saturday and Sunday. Already, lessons are being pulled from this massive tragedy as Australia begins to pick up the pieces, rebuild and move forward. One of the most serious topics being debated is Victoria's policy for residents to stay and defend their property.

Scientists from Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation have conducted years of research on homes lost to bushfires. They discovered that 90 percent of homes were not destroyed by the advancing fire fronts but instead were consumed by other small fires started by embers lodged around the structures after the flames had passed. Houses occupied when fire burned around them had a three to six times greater chance of survival. This improved outcome was a result of residents preparing their structures with proper bushfire defensive techniques prior to a fire's arrival. Occupants who remained inside their homes kept destruction at bay by actively patrolling attic spaces and other rooms, using buckets of water to extinguish any developing threats. Once the intensity of the fire subsided, homeowners went outside to extinguish any embers or direct flames threatening their structures.

These tactics — backed by CSIRO research — have worked in most cases, but the fire conditions of Black Saturday were just too intense. Many of those who perished as their homes burned around them had no idea about the ferocity of the towers of onrushing flames until it was too late. It also had been nearly 25 years since Ash Wednesday, the last deadly wind-driven fire event in Victoria. It's possible that a portion of the population had grown complacent about their safety in relation to the dynamic threat of nearby bushfires on hot, windy summer days.

OTHER FACTORS

Another complexity was that access to informational updates had become a huge problem because Victoria's 000 emergency services phone number was overwhelmed, and the mobile phone networks crashed due to overuse. The Internet, too, had its share of problems. The Victorian fire agencies were in the practice of posting real-time bulletins about ongoing fires for the public to monitor, but this fire event's incredible advances made it impossible to keep such updates current. Those unfortunate enough to be caught in the wake of the wind-driven fires were unable to respond to what was happening until it was too late.

The initial interstate and international response to this extraordinary bushfire disaster arrived quickly over the days that followed as firefighters were dispatched to Victoria. On the local level, the Australian government, businesses and aid agencies provided support. Many ordinary Australians supported the relief efforts by fund-raising and donating blood, clothes and blankets.

Weather experts say drought, winds and heating — worsened by global warming — came together perfectly to create the powerful fire complex that raged across Victoria. As greenhouse gases are trapped in the earth's atmosphere to form a global "blanket," more of the sun's reflective heat becomes available. Some of that heat causes evaporation, which dries out the land. This climatic change is an international concern because the air is now drying out more quickly, causing drought conditions to linger. Fire situations in these extra-heated areas are becoming much more acute.

Such climatic changes in southeastern Australia could cause more frequent major fire events. It has been predicted that if global warming continues, by 2020 similar fire events will be blowing across Victoria every seven years or so, leaving much more destruction in their wakes. If the current warming trends hold, by 2050 similar tragedies will be an annual occurrence.

Michael Hill is a wildland firefighter and an aviation military contractor specializing in managing helicopter projects in Afghanistan. In the United States, he worked 18 summers for the U.S. Forest Service as a Hot Shot, rappeller and Smoke Jumper; and in Australia, he serves as a bushfire remote-area helicopter hoist specialist.


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